In: Phyton 56, Fasc. 2 (2016): S. 181-192 DOI: 10.12905/0380.phyton56(2)2016-0181

Will Poa compressa (Poaceae) Become Invasive in Siberia?

By

Marina V. Olonova, Natalia S. Mezina, Tatiana S. Vysokikh, Valeria D. Shiposha and Thomas P. Albright

Received March 8, 2016

Key words: Poa compressa, Poaceae. – Invasive species, distribution modeling, MaxEnt. – Flora of Siberia

Summary
Olonova M. V., Mezina N. S., Vysokikh T. S.. Shiposha V. D. & Albright T. P. 2016. Will Poa compressa (Poaceae) become invasive in Siberia? – Phyton (Horn, Austria) 56(2): 181–192, 1 figure.

Poa compressa L. is a widespread grass of Europe and Far East. Now it is considered a noxious alien weed in North America. In recent years, it has begun to appear in Western Siberia, raising questions about its potential to continue to invade and become noxious in this region. The aims of our study were to infer areas where P. compressa may occur or become invasive in Siberia and to identify environmental factors associated with its distribution. We used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method of species distribution modeling for predicting suitable habitats for Poa compressa and revealing the role of eight biologically significant climatic factors within its distribution. We evaluated the predictive skill of models using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Resulting models suggest poor suitability of most of Western Siberia for P. compressa. Minimum temperatures appeared to be the most important factor limiting the occurrence of P. compressa in Western Siberia. While P. compressa does not appear poised to expand greatly into Western Siberia under current climatic conditions, it may be able to expand considerably if the current trend of increasing minimum temperatures continues.